The coconut scale insect (CSI) Aspidiotus rigidus Reyne (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) poses a significant threat to coconut production in the Philippines as shown by recent outbreaks. Ecological niche modeling using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) was used to determine the effects of environmental factors on the infestation of A. rigidus, and map its potential distribution in the Philippines to assess the risk of future outbreaks. The influence of bioclimatic variables on A. rigidus infestation was determined using MaxEnt modeling using the location data of A. rigidus occurrence confirmed using molecular markers. Rainfall and temperature variables were important for A. rigidus distribution with rainfall being more important than temperature. Annual rainfall and precipitation seasonality were the first and second most important variables determining A. rigidus infestation with 47.9% and 30.7% permutation importance, respectively. The final A. rigidus MaxEnt model showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.93 indicating a very good predictive power; hence, the potential distribution map can be used to assess the risk of A. rigidus outbreaks in the Philippines.